After a decade of low interest rates and predictable valuation expansion, private equity has entered a fundamentally different era. Entry costs have never been higher. The exit overhang is at historic levels. Firms that adapt build compounding advantages. Firms that don’t find themselves on the wrong side of a performance gap that doesn’t close.
AI is reshaping the value of every company you own, buy, or sell. Part of what’s driving the exit overhang is genuine uncertainty about AI’s impact on business models. Services-heavy companies, which fill many PE portfolios, are particularly exposed. Buyers are pricing in disruption risk, and that uncertainty makes it harder to liquidate investments at valuations that made sense at entry.
The biggest risk facing PE firms right now is failing to understand what AI means for the companies in their portfolio. A portfolio company’s valuation can shift dramatically depending on how AI plays out for that specific business: whether management is resistant or proactive, whether the data infrastructure can support it, whether competitors are already moving. Acquisition decisions made without a structured assessment of AI risk and opportunity leave firms flying blind on the single biggest factor affecting business value over the next five years.
We’ve seen firms try AI before: vendor-driven pilots that produce a demo but not a deliverable, consulting engagements that end with a report but not a running system. We don’t do that. We embed with your operating group and build production systems that are accountable to the same outcomes you are.
Sources: McKinsey Global Private Markets Report 2026, “Private equity: Clearer view, tougher terrain” (median multiple; analyst-task productivity); Bain Global Private Equity Report 2026, “Outlook 2026: Gaining Traction” (buyout inventory held 4+ years).